Stalled site auctions, delayed final investment decisions and cancelled offtake contracts continued to weigh on the global offshore wind industry in 2025, according to the latest Global Market Overview report by wind market research and intelligence provider TGS 4C. The analysis shows that long-term expectations have been revised downwards. Forecast global offshore wind installed capacity for 2030 has been reduced by 28% year on year. Expected capacity outside China has fallen from 192 GW to 121 GW. Europe and the Asia-Pacific region are both affected, with forecast reductions of 21% and 31% respectively, indicating a broad-based slowdown rather than isolated regional weakness.
Looking further ahead, the report finds that global offshore wind capacity expected to enter construction by 2040, excluding China, has been cut by 22%, from 435 GW in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 341 GW. This reflects ongoing uncertainty related to project economics, policy frameworks and delivery schedules.
Market activity in 2025 declined sharply. New site awards reached 17.2 GW, a fall of 78% compared with the 75 GW annual average recorded between 2022 and 2024. This contraction has reduced demand for site surveys and associated services. The slowdown was most pronounced in Europe, while floating offshore wind accounted for 5.5 GW of awarded capacity.
Offtake awards dropped to 3.1 GW, with contracts signed only in South Korea, France and Ireland, all for fixed-bottom projects.
Despite weak short-term conditions, the report identifies early signs of improvement from 2026. Higher award volumes are anticipated, with up to 17.6 GW of offtake and around 20 GW of site tenders expected. In addition, 11.4 GW could reach final investment decision and close to 10 GW may enter commercial operation outside China.
